周五公布的经济报告显示，美国经济增长大幅放缓直接配资官网首页，美联储首选的通胀指标在2025年底升温，这使得进一步降息的前景更加复杂。
据美国商务部的数据，2025年第四季度，衡量商品和服务支出的国内生产总值（GDP）年化增长率仅为1.4%，远低于此前约2.5%的预期。
2025年全年，美国经济增长率为2.2%，低于2024年的2.8%。
与此同时，美国经济分析局表示，美联储首选的通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数——在12月份升至2.9%，高于此前2.7%的预期。
剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心个人消费支出在过去一年上涨了3%。尽管符合预期，但该数据仍远高于美联储2%的通胀目标，表明降低通胀的进展已经停滞。
Northlight Asset Management首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利周五在一份报告中表示，“不幸的是，这份报告将延长鹰派和鸽派在美联储政策上的分歧。”
周三公布的美联储1月会议纪要也显示，决策者今年更不愿意降息。
在令人失望的GDP报告发布不到一小时前，特朗普总统在真相社交上发帖称，去年创纪录的政府停摆是导致经济增长急剧放缓的罪魁祸首。
“民主党的政府停摆至少使美国GDP下降了两个百分点，”他写道。“此外，利率也应该降低。‘两度推迟降息’的鲍威尔是最糟糕的！！！”
他对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（其任期将于5月结束）的抨击正值分析人士预期近期经济报告将使政策制定者继续采取观望态度之际。
商务部表示，惨淡的第四季度GDP数据（较第三季度4.4%的增速大幅下滑）部分受到政府停摆的影响，但消费支出和出口疲软也是主要原因。
扎卡雷利写道，“乍一看，第四季度GDP的初步数据令人非常失望。”
“然而，政府停摆了近半个季度。一些估计认为，如果政府没有停摆，GDP增速可能接近2.4%，但这些调整的准确性总是难以确定。”
个人消费支出报告进一步巩固了美联储官员暂缓进一步降息的理由，因为商品价格上涨0.4%，服务价格上涨0.3%，这意味着价格压力依然普遍存在，而非集中在某个特定行业。
RGA Investments首席投资官里克·加德纳周五在一份报告中指出：“尽管这些数据已经过时几个月，但它表明美联储的通胀问题远未解决。”
政府支出和投资暴跌5.1%，这主要是由于政府停摆导致联邦支出下降16.6%。
但也有一些潜在的经济强劲迹象。
最终销售额（面向国内私人消费者）增长2.4%，国内私人总投资增长3.8%。
US economic growth drastically slowed and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge heated up at the end of 2025 – complicating the path to more interest rate cuts, economic reports indicated Friday.
Gross domestic product, or GDP – which measures spending on goods and services – rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, well below expectations of around 2.5%, according to the Commerce Department.
For the full year of 2025, the US economy grew at a 2.2% pace. That’s down from a 2.8% clip in 2024.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – known as the PCE price index – heated up to 2.9% in December, above estimates of 2.7%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
The core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3% over the past year. While it matched expectations, the figure is still considerably higher than the Fed’s 2% inflation target – and indicates progress on reducing inflation has stalled.
“Unfortunately, this report will prolong the disagreement between hawks and doves on the Federal Reserve,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, said in a note Friday.
Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting that were released Wednesday also revealed policymakers are more reluctant to cut rates this year.
Less than an hour before the disappointing GDP report was released, President Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social that last year’s record-breaking government shutdown was to blame for the dramatic slowdown in growth.
“The Democrat Shutdown cost the USA at least two points in GDP,” he stated. “Also, LOWER INTEREST RATES. ‘Two Late’ Powell is the WORST!!!”
His jab at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell – whose term at the head of the central bank ends in May – comes as analysts expect the recent economic reports to keep policymakers on a wait-and-see approach moving forward.
The Commerce Department said the dismal GDP reading – which was a sharp decline from the 4.4% rate in the third quarter – was partially influenced by the government shutdown, but that it was also slammed by weaker consumer spending and exports.
“At first glance the first reading of Q4 GDP was very disappointing,” Zacarrelli wrote.
“However, the government was shut down for almost half the quarter. Some estimates have put the number closer to 2.4% if the government hadn’t been shut down, but it’s always hard to know how accurate those adjustments are.”
The PCE report also solidified the case for Fed officials to hold off on more rate cuts, as good prices climbed 0.4% and services rose 0.3% – implying that price pressures are still taking place across the board, not in any one sector.
“Even though this data is now a few months old, it shows that the Federal Reserve’s inflation problem is far from solved,” Rick Gardner, chief investment officer at RGA Investments, said in a note Friday.
Government spending and investment plunged 5.1% – largely drawn down by a 16.6% decline in federal spending as the government was shut down.
But there were some underlying signs of economic strength.
Final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 2.4% and gross private domestic investment jumped 3.8%.直接配资官网首页
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